Millennials in the News
I’m seeing a lot of focus recently on Millennials.
First, I was interviewed for this article. After about thirty minutes on the phone during which I felt I said all kinds of interesting things, the reporter decided that brevity was the soul of wit and distilled my comments: http://seattletimes.com/html/homesrealestate/2022051165_hrerentersowners20xml.html#.UmVzjkc2TF4.facebook.
The longer version of what I said is that we used to have four general markets for downtown condo dwellers: committed urbanites, downsizers, 2nd home buyers, 1st time buyers hoping to use that purchase as a stepping stone into townhomes/single family homes. In the downturn, that fourth category saw their dreams dashed; there was a year or two in which we heard very little from them. Even the youths (“the two _yutes_”: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1QpyGa61zs ) who didn’t purchase saw their friends/older siblings get hurt and so have come back in somewhat reluctantly and with an aversion to: total monthly housing expense higher than current rent, rental caps, potential future assessments, potential loss of view.
Then, I read an interesting article in The New Yorker, penned by a Millennial, about my hometown, San Francisco. What most took me was the full-on embrace of self-direction; of owning one’s own time, perhaps of living genuinely. A dear friend pointed out how exhausting it must be to hold three different jobs and then to have to find an unique, artisanal hobby to add to the mix. Agreed. http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2013/10/14/131014fa_fact_heller
And finally, today’s insight from Inman News, possibly writing off the entire generation when it comes to homeownership: http://www.inman.com/2013/10/24/cant-find-work-or-save-for-a-down-payment-are-millennials-becoming-real-estates-lost-generation/ For some reason, the fear seems a bit overblown to me, but…the assertion that “adolescence actually extends to about age 25” is fun to consider.
Did you hear the KUOW piece yesterday?
http://www.kuow.org/mp3high/mp3/News/20120315_dw_property.mp3
This piece aired yesterday, featuring my colleague, friend, and great agent Jed Kliman. Some of my client have asked for my thoughts on it:
Jed says he noticed a switch 2.5 months ago, which is roughly January 1st. I agree. And, it seems to have happened across most single-family price ranges. We were seeing signs of market pick-up just after the Holidays. I wasn’t quite ready to call it a pattern and was a bit concerned when Seattle experienced “Snowmaggedon 2012;” activity dropped off during that time.
On January 15th, I heard crickets as I hosted the same open house I had for the previous several weeks. This home had 3 other “competitors” in the $1.1M-$1.3M range; one listed in April 2011, two in July 2011, and the other in October 2011. The snow melted, and the homes started to sell: January 18, January 23, January 26, and finally February 23rd (on the last one, the Buyer was not able to negotiate much at all off the price).
It was interesting to hear Tim Ellis (Seattle Bubble) say that “Inventory always picks up after the Holidays.” Well, yes…but sometimes not by much. And, a few years ago, it took deep into Spring before the market felt different. This year was different.
Buyers in the story cite “frustration” and Tim Ellis thinks we will reach an eventual balance of supply and demand. I agree with the Buyers; it is frustrating. I think most Brokers would prefer to see a balance. Unfortunately, we had a long Sellers’ market, probably followed by a short period of balance, and then what felt like a long Buyers’ market. Now, we appear to be in a Sellers’ market again
I agree that markets seek balance. I’m interested in why we haven’t found long periods of balance. We do live in an amazing place. But, we are not immune to the outside world. Perhaps it is as simple as this: When broader market factors allow, Seattle – as a place to live and grow – is a “buy.”